Because illegal addictive substances are currently—as at any time in the past—readily available, the nearly sixty-year-long war on drugs has achieved only one thing: it has significantly contributed to a horrific toll that includes one million murdered Mexicans and one million Americans who have died from overdoses. However, as this section reveals, the scale of the disaster, particularly in Mexico, is far greater than official data suggest.
The following three charts are currently available:
About charts
The statistics on homicides and disappeared persons in Mexico come from official data provided by the relevant Mexican agencies that were responsible for this issue over the years. Estimates of the actual number of missing Mexicans are based on testimony from the former head of the National Search Commission, according to whom five times more people disappear in Mexico than official sources report. This unofficial number of missing persons has therefore been added to the chart. Although it is only an estimate, it conveys the scale of the disaster in Mexico far more clearly than the official figures.
The annual population of the country—necessary for calculating the number of victims per 100,000 inhabitants—is based on census data, which is typically conducted every five or ten years. The population for years in which no census took place is calculated based on the trend between the two most recent censuses.
The number of overdose deaths in the United States, as well as the annual population estimates, are based on official data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (specifically the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). All statistics include only unintentional overdose deaths. This means the chart does not include intentional overdoses (whether classified as suicide or homicide). The chart also excludes overdoses for which intent was not determined. The number of such deaths ranges from roughly one thousand per year (in the 1970s and 1980s) to three thousand (over the past three decades).
Over the years, two methodological changes occurred—first between 1978 and 1979, and then between 1998 and 1999. Until 1978, the 8th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8) was used. Unintentional methamphetamine overdoses were included under code E856.4 (Amphetamine), cocaine was usually assigned to code E859.0 (Local anesthetics), and heroin fell under code E853.0 (Opiates and synthetic analogues). All drug- and medication-related overdoses were classified under codes E850 through E859.
Under ICD-9 (from 1979 to 1998), methamphetamine fell under code E854.2 (Psychostimulants), cocaine overdoses were assigned to code E855.2 (Local anesthetics), and heroin was included under code E850.0 (Opiates and related narcotics). All overdoses were classified under codes E850 through E858.
A more significant change occurred in 1999, when ICD-10 came into effect. Until then, there was no specific category for opioid painkillers such as OxyContin or for fentanyl. Deaths caused by these substances were therefore assigned to various codes. Overdoses involving prescription opioids (for example the aforementioned OxyContin, but not methadone, which has its own category) were newly classified under code T40.2 (Other opioids), while fentanyl falls under code T40.4 (Other synthetic narcotics). Heroin has its own distinct category under code T40.1 (Heroin). The same applies to cocaine, which is assigned to code T40.5 (Cocaine). Methamphetamine overdoses are classified under code T43.6 (Psychostimulants with abuse potential).
If an overdose involves multiple substances, a single death appears simultaneously in multiple “T” categories. This, however, largely prevents meaningful comparison of mortality associated with individual substances. For the purposes of this chart, the deaths were therefore classified as follows: if fentanyl was found in the body of the overdose victim (whether alone or in combination with other substances), the death was always assigned to the fentanyl code (T40.4); if heroin was found in the body (in any combination, but not with fentanyl), the death was assigned to the heroin code (T40.1); the same principle was then applied to prescription opioids (without the presence of fentanyl or heroin), methamphetamine (without fentanyl, heroin, or opioid medications), and finally cocaine (without fentanyl, heroin, medications such as OxyContin, or methamphetamine).
All single deaths caused by drug and medication overdoses appear under codes X40 through X44. The chart, of course, does not include deaths caused by alcohol.
Surveys on drug use are likewise conducted by a branch of the Department of Health and Human Services (the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration). The chart includes the percentage of U.S. residents aged 12 and older who used a given drug during the one-month period preceding the survey (past-month use). Because the first four surveys—conducted between 1972 and 1977—did not include results reflecting heroin use in the preceding month, the data in the chart were derived from heroin use over the past year.
With the exception of heroin in the first four surveys, all data in the chart correspond to official SAMHSA findings. This naturally also applies to methamphetamine, which was not included in the surveys until 1999. If data for a given year are missing, no survey was conducted that year (or a particular category was not included in the questionnaire).
It is also necessary to note the warning issued by the survey authors that data from different periods should not be compared due to regular methodological changes. However, the chart shows that changes in data collection methods generally did not have a significant impact. The years in which methodological adjustments occurred are as follows: 1979, 1999, 2002, 2020, and 2021.
Sources:
Comisión Nacional de Búsqueda. Versión Estadística RNPDNO: Personas desaparecidas. 2026-01-19. https://versionpublicarnpdno.segob.gob.mx/Dashboard/Index.
Coordinación General del Sistema Nacional de Información. Manual de estadísticas básicas sociodemográficas. 1979.
Dirección General de Estadística. Anuario estadístico compendiado de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos 1968-1969. 1971.
Dirección General de Estadística. Anuario estadístico compendiado de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos 1970-1971. 1973.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. Defunciones por homicidios. 2026-01-19. https://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/olap/Proyectos/bd/continuas/mortalidad/DefuncionesHom.asp.
McDonnell, Patrick J. and Cecilia Sánchez Vidal. Is the Mexican government hiding how many people have gone missing? Los Angeles Times. 2024-02-15.
México Máxico. México, Tasa de Homicidios por 100 mil habitantes desde 1931. 2021-10-29. http://www.mexicomaxico.org/Voto/Homicidios100M.htm.
Pan American Health Organization. Health Conditions in the Americas, 1981-1984. 1986.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Compressed Mortality, 1968-1978. ICD-8 Codes: E850-E859; E853.0; E856.4; E859.0. 2026-01-20. https://wonder.cdc.gov/cmf-icd8.html.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Compressed Mortality, 1979-1998. ICD-9 Codes: E850-E858; E850.0; E854.2; E855.2. 2026-01-20. https://wonder.cdc.gov/cmf-icd9.html.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Multiple Cause of Death, 1999-2020. ICD-10 Codes: X40-X44; T40.1; T40.2; T40.4.; T40.5; T43.6. 2026-03-06. https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Multiple Cause of Death, 2018-2024. ICD-10 Codes: X40-X44; T40.1; T40.2; T40.4.; T40.5; T43.6. 2026-03-06. https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html.
Office of National Drug Control Policy. National Drug Control Strategy: Data Supplement 2020. February 2020.
National Institute on Drug Abuse. National Survey on Drug Abuse: 1977. 1977.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. 1995 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. August 1996.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. 1998 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. 1999-08-12.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. 2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. September 2014.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. 2020 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. October 2021.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. 2022 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. November 2023.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. 2023 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. July 2024.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. 2024 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. July 2025.